What We Learned from the First Major Contests of the 2024 Election

The first four Republican primary contests have been dominated by former President Donald Trump across Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada, and now in South Carolina, where he won 60% of the vote over the weekend. 

Former South Carolina Governor and UN Ambassador Nikki Haley did not get the momentum shift she’d hoped for in her home state. While she is Trump’s sole remaining Republican primary challenger, she received only 40% of the vote in the last two primaries.

Haley has vowed to stay in the race through Super Tuesday on March 5, when 17 states (and the territory of American Samoa) will award their 874 delegates. An additional 141 delegates are also at stake between now and Super Tuesday. 

Polling currently indicates primary victories for Trump across all states on Super Tuesday. Without a change in Republican primary voting trends, he will be the presumed nominee for the Republican Party. 

Download the full analysis here.