Quick Take: The 14th Five Year Plan for a Beautiful China

China’s annual Two Sessions – or legislative meeting – concluded earlier this month, with the main event being the ratification of the 14th Five Year Plan (2021-2025) and economic goals through 2035. The 148-page plan sets out the big picture for the next five years and covers a broad range of topics: science and technology, climate and conservation, industrial upgrades, rural revitalization, and food security, how to grapple with the aging population, and focused quite a bit on engaging emerging markets in the Global South. In addition, given the emphasis on green development, there was a significant focus on worker retraining programs and vocational schools’ development to retrain those in “sunsetting” industries.

Quick Take: Latest on China in the Cabinet Confirmation Hearings

With the pending vote of Katherine Tai as USTR, Wally Adeyemo as the Deputy Treasury Secretary by the Senate Finance Committee, and Bill Burns at CIA, we take a look at what these key officials said about China during their confirmation hearings.‍ All nominees have their own label for China -- from rival to authoritarian adversary and competitor, but reaffirm that the U.S. needs to shore up supply chains, compete better, and engage our allies on China. However, there is space for collaboration, particularly on climate, health, and non-proliferation.‍ The Senate is set to approve Katherine Tai for USTR and Wally Adeyemo for Deputy Treasury Secretary after the Senate Finance Committee’s confirmation. We highlight how they, and the nominee for CIA Director Bill Burns, talked about China during their confirmation hearings.‍

Egypt’s COVID Recovery and Opportunities for Investment

Last week, Basilinna CEO Deborah Lehr interviewed Egypt’s former Assistant Minister of Investment, and Basilinna Senior Advisor, Ambassador Yasser Elnaggar, about Egypt’s unique position as the only emerging market to see economic growth in 2020 and sectors of opportunity for foreign companies and investors. They also discussed what a new Biden Administration means for relations with Egypt and how those dynamics could impact investors. Finally, the Ambassador provides some advice on how to navigate the opportunities and challenges. The following is a quick recap of the wide-ranging conversation. 

2021 Chinese New Year Timeline

QuickTake: Fast and Furious on China through the Bitter End

As predicted, the Trump Administration will not go quietly into transition. Aside from the tragic domestic events over the weekend, the Trump team has been active in issuing major policy announcements aimed at China over the past few weeks. The common narrative in D.C. has been that China will not be an immediate priority for the Biden team; rather, it will be COVID relief, economic recovery, and healing our divisions domestically. Yet, some of Trump’s actions will force the Biden team to contend with China early on.

QuickTake: Roundup of Recent China Developments

The Trump Administration has not let the Presidential election slow down their pace of action targeting China. With President Trump focused on advancing claims of election fraud, members of his team bent on reshaping the bilateral relationship irrevocably have been hard at work over the past few weeks. In the meantime, the long-awaited bill requiring the delisting of Chinese firms finally passed; there have been further curbs on Xinjiang cotton; and, China’s 92 million Communist Party members are subject to new visa restrictions effective immediately. Elsewhere, the Biden Cabinet is taking shape as he announces his nominees for several key positions. The following is a quick roundup of the developments over the past few weeks.

QuickTake: China Plans Further Market Opening in Services

While a COVID relief bill is stalled in Congress, China is moving full speed ahead to rebuild and reorient its economy. President Xi Jinping has pledged to promote “dual circulation” at home, meaning China intends to build up domestic consumption and to seek opportunities internationally as the core of its stimulus effort. As a core part of this initiative, the Chinese are further opening its services market to competition and are testing new opportunities in services through pilot projects in Beijing. This new policy could provide significant opportunities for foreign service providers

Quick Take: President-Elect Biden – A Change in Form over Substance on China

As president-elect Joe Biden looks to take office, there are a few things we can say about what his Presidency could mean for China, but one thing is likely: the policy contours will take time to emerge. Mr. Biden will be focused immediately on the twin domestic crises of the resurging COVID virus and the economic slowdown. And, given Biden’s few comments on China over the course of the election and historic contradictory voting record, the selection of Cabinet members will be an important initial indication of his policy direction. As always after a Presidential win, the jockeying for positions in government is already in full swing and rumors are flying about who will fill the various seats.

China’s Fifth Plenum: The 14th Five Year Plan and Vision 2035

For China watchers, there were perhaps no surprises in China’s announcement of the 14thFive Year Plan (FYP) as most of the content had been rolled out and foreshadowed over the past two years. The plan is ambitious and confident covering climate, tech self-reliance, promoting domestic demand (featured in the dual-circulation strategy), Taiwan, and more. Yet, this plan marks a fundamental paradigm shift to China’s economic trajectory, and contrary to the popular narrative, it does not mean that China is turning inward. In fact, there is quite a lot in this plan about opening-up aimed at attracting and retaining foreign investment, which has been increasing despite the deteriorating external environment China faces around the world.

Middle East Institute: Rethinking Egypt's Economy

The Middle East Institute's latest report highlights the challenges Egypt faces amongst the COVID-19 pandemic, and how it can leverage some of its critical strengths and new opportunities to chart a path towards economic recovery.

Quick Take:  U.S.-China System Overload?

The Trump Administration has been rolling out China-targeted actions at a fast and furious pace over the past few weeks. From revoking Hong Kong’s special status with the U.S. to talk of banning Chinese apps, visa restrictions and Uyghur-related sanctions, the hits keep coming. Is this pace of action overloading the system? With so much confusion around the details, it seems so. Here’s what you need to know about what has happened lately.

Quick Take: China Shortens the 2020 Negative Lists

Yesterday China announced another reduction to its Negative Lists, which are the lists of sectors prohibited or restricted for foreign investment. While there were no surprises and most of the reductions had been included in the Phase One trade deal, the move is important symbolically and in reality. The key, however, will be to monitor approvals of applications submitted under these newly opened sectors. Here's a quick summary of the reductions that were made in this latest round.

NPC Update: What Policy Themes Might Emerge?

The annual National People’s Congress (NPC) meetings – delayed since March due to the pandemic – will begin on May 22 in Beijing. The fact that the session will be held in-person is a milestone in China’s return to normalcy. COVID-19 will dominate the agenda along with how to spur the economy, particularly getting consumer spending back on track and helping the small and medium-sized enterprises. Most closely watched will be the setting of the economic growth target – a centerpiece of this meeting in normal times. We expect to see either a move away from setting the target or a lowering to potentially 3% – from the previous 6% target.

Quick Take: COVID-19 fatigue? Here’s what you need to know this week

This week, we have analysis and insight fatigue with all things COVID-19. This fatigue is one of the lesser-known side effects of this pandemic, and apparently even people in Washington, DC do not have the antibodies to be immune. Even so, the pace of important bilateral developments this week was relentless. Here are a few noteworthy developments summarized below … with limited analysis.

Quick Take: New Low in China Rhetoric - and What it Could Mean for Businesses

There is so much vitriol directed at China and coming from China over the past couple of weeks. In this Quick Take, we take a look at how wild the rhetoric has become, share some thoughts about what this new low could mean, and about the new risk for businesses to navigate.

Quick Take: What's New with China's Latest Roadmap to Marketize Production Factors?

China issues a new roadmap to marketize production factors, including land, labor, capital, and data. While much of these proposed reforms have been debated for decades, the economic impact of the virus may create renewed political will to move forward. If successfully implemented, these changes would be transformational for the Chinese economy. Here is a summary of the guidelines.

Quick Take: The Backlash against China Begins

As a glimmer of hope has appeared in the fight against COVID-19 in the United States as cases start to stabilize in New York, attention is turning to who should pay for the economic harm and loss of life resulting from the spread of the coronavirus. From Capitol Hill to the churches, there are increasing calls for China to take responsibility for the rapid global spread of the virus. The argument is that the world was not prepared for the severity and rapid spread because China withheld scientific information and downplayed the actual numbers of people infected. Here's our latest observations about the growing backlash against China and future implications.

China's Returning Workforce Sector and City Tracking

Based on public sources and briefings, we have compiled a tracking sheet for the percentage of China’s workforce returning in various sectors and in key provinces and cities since the initial shutdowns in China started on January 23, 2020. This document will be updated regularly.

Quick Take: China Shows Signs of Recovery While Virus Hits Rest of the World

With so much of the media coverage shifting attention to the coronavirus turning into a pandemic and the spread in the U.S., here are a few of the developments in China over the past week you might have missed.

Quick Take: Coronavirus Latest – Implications for Business

The coronavirus’ rapid spread is hitting the Chinese – and global – economy during the Lunar New Year celebrations, a major driver of consumer growth. While China has acted swiftly to curb domestic and international travel, cancel holiday celebrations, and extend the Lunar festival holidays, developments are fast-moving. Here's what you need to know about the implications for business.

Quick Take: What Else You Should Know about the Phase One Trade Deal with China

A lot has been written summarizing the phase one deal with China, but there are a few aspects of the agreement that are worth highlighting along with some of the implications now that this agreement has been signed. Here’s our take on what else you should know.

China’s State Councilor Kicks Off Africa Tour with Egypt

This past week, China’s State Councilor and Foreign Minister, Wang Yi, started his annual trip to Africa with his first stop in Egypt. The tradition of making the first foreign trip of the year to Egypt demonstrates the importance China has made relations with the country. Egypt is an essential part of its strategic plan for the Middle East and North Africa as well as a hub for the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI).

Quick Take: What Should be in a Phase Two China Trade Deal?

The phase one trade deal will be signed on January 15, and consideration is being given to what a phase two negotiation should include. Here's our take on what could and should be in the second round.

Quick Take: China's Economic Work Conference

Last month, China held its annual Central Economic Work Conference which lays out economic priorities for the year. Here's what you need to know as you consider your 2020 China market strategy.

PRESS RELEASE: Edelman and Basilinna partner to offer integrated China and Middle East-focused public affairs and communications services

‍New York City, 18 December 2019: Edelman, the world’s leading communications and public affairs firm, and Basilinna, a Washington, D.C.-based strategic consulting company, have entered into an exclusive partnership designed to provide multinational China-and Middle East-based clients of both firms with expanded communications and government relations services in China, the Middle East and the United States.

Quick Take: A Phase One Trade Deal - At Long Last

China and the United States announce a phase one trade deal (at long last), but details will not be available for a few weeks. Based on meetings with the Administration and the Chinese, press reports, and public statements, here is what we have learned.

Bloomberg Daybreak: Debt Remains a Key Issue for Chinese Economy

On September 1st 2019, Basilinna CEO Deborah Lehr was featured on "Bloomberg Daybreak Americas" to discuss China's pivot to consumer & SME growth, China’s strategy as they head into trade negotiations with the U.S. next month, the effect of the 2020 candidates on U.S.-China relations, and the impact of events in Hong Kong on U.S.-China trade talks.

Bloomberg: Biggest Issue of Trade Talks Is Enforcement of Commitments

On August 1, 2019, Basilinna CEO Deborah Lehr was featured on "Bloomberg Markets: Asia" discussing the U.S.-China trade negotiations, including the biggest sticking point of the talks, the implications of the coming 2020 election, the Chinese negotiators and agricultural purchases by China.

Quick Take: Belt and Road Forum Attempts to Address Growing Criticism

President Xi Jinping presided over China’s Second Belt and Road Forum last week in Beijing amidst growing international criticism. Here’s our quick take on what you need to know.

Quick Take: Huawei Under Pressure: Implications for Chinese Tech

The developments around the high-profile arrest of Huawei’s CFO has created a media frenzy, launched a range of conspiracy theories and increased speculation about the role of Chinese telecom equipment providers globally. The following is a succinct summary of the salient facts of the case and its potential implications.

Quick Take: U.S.-China Trade Moves Forward: Market Opening, Liu He to DC, and Another Big Xi Speech

China’s Ministry of Commerce (MOFCOM) on Friday quietly announced concrete steps to revise and eliminate restrictions set forth in their centrally administered Negative List on inbound foreign investment. In addition, the Vice President Liu He's upcoming visit to Washington and President Xi's speech in December celebrating the 40th anniversary of opening up and reform both show the intention to bring further market openings.

China-Egypt Tourism surges solidifying bilateral ties

Few nations boast a richer cultural lineage than China or Egypt. To draw a line from their present to their past is to trace the evolution of human civilization. Despite this shared global relevance, until recently the two nations have remained isolated by geographical circumstance. Now that is beginning to change as Chinese tourists flock to Egypt in record numbers.

China has cut back the "negative list" for foreign investment. See an overview of the changes on our infographic.

Faithful Five: Navigating Business During Ramadan

Quick Take: U.S.-China Trade Talks, Where are we this week?

Vice Premier Liu He arrives next week for second round of trade talks, likely late next week Focus will be on reducing the trade deficit through increasing purchases, market access for key products, tech transfer, and intellectual property rights Finding some kind of resolution on ZTE will be a Chinese priority

Implications of the Egyptian Presidential Elections: Interview with Ambassador Yasser Elnaggar

In an interview, Ambassador Yasser Elnaggar, CEO of ENInvestment and Basilinna Senior Advisor, provides insights on the implications of Egypt's Presidential election for its economy and foreign affairs.

Quick Take: Egypt's Presidential elections produces expected results. What does another Sisi term mean?

As expected, President Abdel Fattah El-Sisi secured a second term this past March, receiving 97 percent of the votes but with only 41% voter turn out. Expect to see continued focus on growing the economy, including eliminating government subsidies, opening new sectors to foreign investment, and job creation. On foreign affairs, close ties will continue with the United States and China.

Quick Take: China's new financial "Dream Team" signals opening up

What comes next after China's financial "Dream Team" was announced? Opening up of China's financial sector to foreign firms is a priority of the newly announced leadership coming out of the National People’s Congress. The financial sector leadership announced last week is the most Westernized and technically experienced to date.

NPC Update: At last, the new leadership announced

‍China announced its new state leadership today, with only a few surprises. The most interesting “statement” however, was that in all government-issued organizational charts, Vice President Wang Qishan is ranked as the number two in the government, ahead of Premier Li Keqiang. Totally unprecedented

NPC Update: Slow Start

The 13th session of the National People’s Congress (NPC)—China’s nearly 3,000-delegate parliament—began on Monday, March 5th with an address from Premier Li Keqiang about the state of the economy. In it, he cited a GDP growth target of “about 6.5 percent,” and a commitment to managing macro-level financial risks.

NPC Update: Fact Sheet

Each March, the National People’s Congress (NPC) and the Chinese People’s Political Consultative Conference (CPPCC) convene to approve the work plans for the next year in what is commonly known as the “Two Meetings,” or Lianghui. The NPC annual meeting brings together 2,980 deputies from the provinces, the military, and the central government in Beijing. Given the significant personnel changes over the past five years, almost 75 percent of the delegates will be new.

Auspicious Eight: A Chinese New Year primer

Green team results

Five Facts You Didn’t Know About Chinese Tourism: Fact 5

Five Facts You Didn’t Know About Chinese Tourism: Fact 4

"The End Of The Asian Century", by Michael Auslin

Trends across key indicators -- from disparate demographics, slowing economies, military might, environmental degradation and the lack of cohesiveness amongst the Asian countries -- all threaten to undermine the Asian powerhouse.