Quick Takes
Quick Take: The 14th Five Year Plan for a Beautiful China
China’s annual Two Sessions – or legislative meeting – concluded earlier this month, with the main event being the ratification of the 14th Five Year Plan (2021-2025) and economic goals through 2035. The 148-page plan sets out the big picture for the next five years and covers a broad range of topics: science and technology, climate and conservation, industrial upgrades, rural revitalization, and food security, how to grapple with the aging population, and focused quite a bit on engaging emerging markets in the Global South. In addition, given the emphasis on green development, there was a significant focus on worker retraining programs and vocational schools’ development to retrain those in “sunsetting” industries.
Read MoreQuick Take: Latest on China in the Cabinet Confirmation Hearings
With the pending vote of Katherine Tai as USTR, Wally Adeyemo as the Deputy Treasury Secretary by the Senate Finance Committee, and Bill Burns at CIA, we take a look at what these key officials said about China during their confirmation hearings. All nominees have their own label for China -- from rival to authoritarian adversary and competitor, but reaffirm that the U.S. needs to shore up supply chains, compete better, and engage our allies on China. However, there is space for collaboration, particularly on climate, health, and non-proliferation. The Senate is set to approve Katherine Tai for USTR and Wally Adeyemo for Deputy Treasury Secretary after the Senate Finance Committee’s confirmation. We highlight how they, and the nominee for CIA Director Bill Burns, talked about China during their confirmation hearings.
Read MoreQuick Take: A Cheat Sheet for China’s Economic Policy Buzzwords
As we wait with bated breath for the Biden Administration to unveil its China policy, today’s kick-off of the annual meeting of China’s National People’s Congress (NPC) is a good reminder that China is moving full-steam ahead on a radical economic transformation – regardless of what the U.S. does.
Read MoreQuick Take: Europe gets out in front of Team Biden
European Council members and European leaders have mounted a full-court press these past couple of weeks articulating their views on how to handle China in response to President Biden’s campaign promise to engage allies to confront China. Working with allies is meant to be a stark contrast to the America First rhetoric of Trump. However, based on their messaging, getting EU leaders on board could be a more challenging road for Team Biden than anticipated.
Read MoreQuick Take: Meanwhile in China ….
Earlier this week, we shared our thoughts on early indications of Team Biden’s China policy. Today we are focused on China’s perspective. There, officials are expressing their commitment to a “win-win” strategy with the U.S., reaffirming their “redlines” and deriding the Trump Administration’s “misguided” policies. China is also moving forward with its “New Development Course for China” set forth by President Xi. See our quick take on a few notable developments in China over the past couple of weeks that you might have missed.
Read MoreQuick Take: Biden and China so far
While China watchers debate the merits and author of The Longer Telegram, an anonymous 85-page China strategy published by The Atlantic Council, the Biden team is starting to give us a glimpse of their China policy. Here’s the latest.
Read MoreQuickTake: Fast and Furious on China through the Bitter End
As predicted, the Trump Administration will not go quietly into transition. Aside from the tragic domestic events over the weekend, the Trump team has been active in issuing major policy announcements aimed at China over the past few weeks. The common narrative in D.C. has been that China will not be an immediate priority for the Biden team; rather, it will be COVID relief, economic recovery, and healing our divisions domestically. Yet, some of Trump’s actions will force the Biden team to contend with China early on.
Read MoreQuickTake: Roundup of Recent China Developments
The Trump Administration has not let the Presidential election slow down their pace of action targeting China. With President Trump focused on advancing claims of election fraud, members of his team bent on reshaping the bilateral relationship irrevocably have been hard at work over the past few weeks. In the meantime, the long-awaited bill requiring the delisting of Chinese firms finally passed; there have been further curbs on Xinjiang cotton; and, China’s 92 million Communist Party members are subject to new visa restrictions effective immediately. Elsewhere, the Biden Cabinet is taking shape as he announces his nominees for several key positions. The following is a quick roundup of the developments over the past few weeks.
Read MoreQuickTake: China Plans Further Market Opening in Services
While a COVID relief bill is stalled in Congress, China is moving full speed ahead to rebuild and reorient its economy. President Xi Jinping has pledged to promote “dual circulation” at home, meaning China intends to build up domestic consumption and to seek opportunities internationally as the core of its stimulus effort. As a core part of this initiative, the Chinese are further opening its services market to competition and are testing new opportunities in services through pilot projects in Beijing. This new policy could provide significant opportunities for foreign service providers
Read MoreQuickTake: China Continues in the News: Cabinet Picks, Sanctions, Trade and Climate
President-elect Biden's Cabinet announcements indicate a return to more traditional policy making, yet with a new emphasis -- climate. At the same time, the Trump Administration is considering new sanctions against Chinese firms. And across the Pacific, President Xi Jinping announces a new potential move on trade.
Read MoreQuick Take: Implications of China’s Digital “Currency” Launch
China is the first major country to issue a central bank-backed digital currency. A main driver of the currency launch is to reinvigorate the economy, but it is also intended to spur on a couple of President Xi Jinping’s top policy priorities, including financial inclusion and promoting the RMB internationally.
Read MoreQuick Take: President-Elect Biden – A Change in Form over Substance on China
As president-elect Joe Biden looks to take office, there are a few things we can say about what his Presidency could mean for China, but one thing is likely: the policy contours will take time to emerge. Mr. Biden will be focused immediately on the twin domestic crises of the resurging COVID virus and the economic slowdown. And, given Biden’s few comments on China over the course of the election and historic contradictory voting record, the selection of Cabinet members will be an important initial indication of his policy direction. As always after a Presidential win, the jockeying for positions in government is already in full swing and rumors are flying about who will fill the various seats.
Read MoreQuick Take: U.S.-China System Overload?
The Trump Administration has been rolling out China-targeted actions at a fast and furious pace over the past few weeks. From revoking Hong Kong’s special status with the U.S. to talk of banning Chinese apps, visa restrictions and Uyghur-related sanctions, the hits keep coming. Is this pace of action overloading the system? With so much confusion around the details, it seems so. Here’s what you need to know about what has happened lately.
Read MoreQuick Take: China Shortens the 2020 Negative Lists
Yesterday China announced another reduction to its Negative Lists, which are the lists of sectors prohibited or restricted for foreign investment. While there were no surprises and most of the reductions had been included in the Phase One trade deal, the move is important symbolically and in reality. The key, however, will be to monitor approvals of applications submitted under these newly opened sectors. Here's a quick summary of the reductions that were made in this latest round.
Read MoreQuick Take: China's NPC: 2+1 = Infrastructure
Against the backdrop of heightened U.S.-China tensions and the COVID-19 pandemic, China announced new economic initiatives during the National People’s Congress meetings held May 22-28. China reoriented to focus on job creation and support for small business versus GDP growth. Policies announced reflect this focus.One noteworthy program is the "Two New + One Key" effort which promotes investment in new infrastructure, new urbanization, and key strategic projects.The implementation of this project could create further tensions between the U.S. and China stemming from the ongoing battle for technological dominance.
Read MoreQuick Take: COVID-19 fatigue? Here’s what you need to know this week
This week, we have analysis and insight fatigue with all things COVID-19. This fatigue is one of the lesser-known side effects of this pandemic, and apparently even people in Washington, DC do not have the antibodies to be immune. Even so, the pace of important bilateral developments this week was relentless. Here are a few noteworthy developments summarized below … with limited analysis.
Read MoreQuick Take: New Low in China Rhetoric - and What it Could Mean for Businesses
There is so much vitriol directed at China and coming from China over the past couple of weeks. In this Quick Take, we take a look at how wild the rhetoric has become, share some thoughts about what this new low could mean, and about the new risk for businesses to navigate.
Read MoreQuick Take: What's New with China's Latest Roadmap to Marketize Production Factors?
China issues a new roadmap to marketize production factors, including land, labor, capital, and data. While much of these proposed reforms have been debated for decades, the economic impact of the virus may create renewed political will to move forward. If successfully implemented, these changes would be transformational for the Chinese economy. Here is a summary of the guidelines.
Read MoreQuick Take: The Backlash against China Begins
As a glimmer of hope has appeared in the fight against COVID-19 in the United States as cases start to stabilize in New York, attention is turning to who should pay for the economic harm and loss of life resulting from the spread of the coronavirus. From Capitol Hill to the churches, there are increasing calls for China to take responsibility for the rapid global spread of the virus. The argument is that the world was not prepared for the severity and rapid spread because China withheld scientific information and downplayed the actual numbers of people infected. Here's our latest observations about the growing backlash against China and future implications.
Read MoreQuick Take: How is China's Recovery Looking?
While there are significant questions around the reliability of China’s numbers both in terms of reporting COVID-19 cases and mortality rates, they are slowly getting back to work. Mostly, the country is back to work and reopening, but consumers are still reluctant to spend because of fears of a downturn or a resurgence with the virus. Here is how we are looking at the numbers this week.
Read MoreQuick Take: How is China’s Global Reputation Faring?
So much is unsettled and unknown right now in this new world of the pandemic; the international community's relationship with China is no exception. China's reputation is subject to as much volatility as the markets. Many of the mechanisms to backstop this reputational volatility are stalled or being politicized. While there are more questions than answers about how China – and the world – will come out of this pandemic, the questions shed light on emerging trends. Here's our latest observations about how China's profile is faring globally.
Read MoreQuick Take: China Shows Signs of Recovery While Virus Hits Rest of the World
With so much of the media coverage shifting attention to the coronavirus turning into a pandemic and the spread in the U.S., here are a few of the developments in China over the past week you might have missed.
Read MoreQuick Take: Coronavirus Latest – China’s Efforts to Shore Up Economy
The coronavirus picks up speed in the U.S. as it seemingly comes under control in China. Speculation about the global economic impact includes fears of a recession. Facing already slowing economic growth, China is rolling out measures to shore up the economy almost daily. Here is what you need to know about China’s initiatives.
Read MoreQuick Take: Coronavirus Latest – Implications for Business
The coronavirus’ rapid spread is hitting the Chinese – and global – economy during the Lunar New Year celebrations, a major driver of consumer growth. While China has acted swiftly to curb domestic and international travel, cancel holiday celebrations, and extend the Lunar festival holidays, developments are fast-moving. Here's what you need to know about the implications for business.
Read MoreQuick Take: What Else You Should Know about the Phase One Trade Deal with China
A lot has been written summarizing the phase one deal with China, but there are a few aspects of the agreement that are worth highlighting along with some of the implications now that this agreement has been signed. Here’s our take on what else you should know.
Read MoreQuick Take: What Should be in a Phase Two China Trade Deal?
The phase one trade deal will be signed on January 15, and consideration is being given to what a phase two negotiation should include. Here's our take on what could and should be in the second round.
Read MoreQuick Take: China's Economic Work Conference
Last month, China held its annual Central Economic Work Conference which lays out economic priorities for the year. Here's what you need to know as you consider your 2020 China market strategy.
Read MoreQuick Take: A Phase One Trade Deal - At Long Last
China and the United States announce a phase one trade deal (at long last), but details will not be available for a few weeks. Based on meetings with the Administration and the Chinese, press reports, and public statements, here is what we have learned.
Read MoreQuick Take: Treasury Declares China a Currency Manipulator as the Trade Tensions Escalate
Late Monday, August 5 2019, Treasury took the significant step of declaring China a currency manipulator in response to China’s retaliation of the threatened tariff increases. This is our take on the latest move in the escalating bilateral tensions.
Read MoreQuick Take: Belt and Road Forum Attempts to Address Growing Criticism
President Xi Jinping presided over China’s Second Belt and Road Forum last week in Beijing amidst growing international criticism. Here’s our quick take on what you need to know.
Read MoreQuick Take: Huawei Under Pressure: Implications for Chinese Tech
The developments around the high-profile arrest of Huawei’s CFO has created a media frenzy, launched a range of conspiracy theories and increased speculation about the role of Chinese telecom equipment providers globally. The following is a succinct summary of the salient facts of the case and its potential implications.
Read MoreQuick Take: U.S.-China Trade Moves Forward: Market Opening, Liu He to DC, and Another Big Xi Speech
China’s Ministry of Commerce (MOFCOM) on Friday quietly announced concrete steps to revise and eliminate restrictions set forth in their centrally administered Negative List on inbound foreign investment. In addition, the Vice President Liu He's upcoming visit to Washington and President Xi's speech in December celebrating the 40th anniversary of opening up and reform both show the intention to bring further market openings.
Read MoreQuick Take: U.S.-China Trade Talks, Where are we this week?
Vice Premier Liu He arrives next week for second round of trade talks, likely late next week Focus will be on reducing the trade deficit through increasing purchases, market access for key products, tech transfer, and intellectual property rights Finding some kind of resolution on ZTE will be a Chinese priority
Read MoreQuick Take: Egypt's Presidential elections produces expected results. What does another Sisi term mean?
As expected, President Abdel Fattah El-Sisi secured a second term this past March, receiving 97 percent of the votes but with only 41% voter turn out. Expect to see continued focus on growing the economy, including eliminating government subsidies, opening new sectors to foreign investment, and job creation. On foreign affairs, close ties will continue with the United States and China.
Read MoreQuick Take: China's new financial "Dream Team" signals opening up
What comes next after China's financial "Dream Team" was announced? Opening up of China's financial sector to foreign firms is a priority of the newly announced leadership coming out of the National People’s Congress. The financial sector leadership announced last week is the most Westernized and technically experienced to date.
Read MoreQuick Take: What you need to know about the CFIUS and FIRRMA
Since being introduced by Senator John Cornyn (R-TX) on November 8th, the House Financial Services Committee and the Senate Committee on Housing, Banking, and Urban Affairs held four hearings over the past two months on FIRRMA, the bill to expand CFIUS’s jurisdiction. A tone of tempered resolve to expand CFIUS was clear during the hearings.
Read MoreQuick Take: China signals greater "opening up" is imminent
China has been sending strong signals that they intend to announce greater market opening for foreign firms as well as a crackdown on intellectual property rights violations to celebrate the 40th anniversary of the launch of China’s “reform and opening up” initiative.
Read MoreQuick Take: Is China the star of Davos -- again?
Minister Liu He, the trusted economic adviser to President Xi Jinping, gave a much-anticipated speech to the Davos attendees. In keeping with the new normal in China post 19th Party Congress, Liu quoted President Xi: “As long as we keep to the goal of building a community with a shared future for mankind and work hand in hand to fulfill our responsibilities and overcome difficulties, we will be able to create a better world and deliver better lives for our people."
Read MoreQuick Take: President Xi moves on financial reform
In another clear sign that President Xi is entering the 19th Plenum in a strong position, China has announced plans to open a number of previously restricted sectors to foreign firms. Important policy decisions continue to be made and announced.
Read MoreQuick Take: Trump announces trade action against China (maybe…)
President Trump did not announce the launch of a 301 investigation today; rather, he signed an Executive Order directing the U.S. Trade Representative to examine China’s intellectual property rights (IPR) protection practices to determine if a Special 301 trade investigation should be launched. T
Read MoreQuick Take: Finally, the financial work conference
The Chinese government has announced that the Financial Work Conference (FWC) will take place on July 14-15. Originally planned to convene last summer, it was postponed due to divisions over some of the key issues, including the creation of a super–regulator to help ensure consistent oversight between the three main financial regulators (the China Banking Regulation Commission (CBRC), the China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC), and the China Insurance Regulatory Commission (CIRC)).
Read MoreQuick Take: Senator Cornyn details plans to modernize CFIUS
Yesterday at the Council on Foreign Relations, I had the honor of interviewing Senator John Cornyn (R-TX) on his plans to “modernize” the Committee on Foreign Investment in the United States (CFIUS). In his opening remarks, Mr. Cornyn admitted CFIUS is working reasonably well, but that there are many gaps being exploited by countries, such as China, in order to leapfrog technology.
Read MoreQuick Take: U.S. positions firms for Belt and Road "Project of the Century"
In typical Chinese fashion, this week’s Belt and Road Forum for International Cooperation went off in a big way in Beijing. On May 14 and 15, 1,500 delegates from over 130 nations -- represented by 29 foreign heads of state and more than 200 ministers -- participated in the Forum. The Chinese Government announced 270 deliverables and $124 billion in new investment.
Read MoreQuick Take: Egypt's latest cabinet reshuffle: Implications for Egypt-China relations
This latest reshuffle was meant to demonstrate action and shore up investor confidence as the economy continues to sputter along. Devaluation of the currency has helped make exports cheaper, but rising inflation is a potential challenge.
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