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U.S.-China Relations
QuickTake: Fast and Furious on China through the Bitter End
As predicted, the Trump Administration will not go quietly into transition. Aside from the tragic domestic events over the weekend, the Trump team has been active in issuing major policy announcements aimed at China over the past few weeks. The common narrative in D.C. has been that China will not be an immediate priority for the Biden team; rather, it will be COVID relief, economic recovery, and healing our divisions domestically. Yet, some of Trump’s actions will force the Biden team to contend with China early on.
Read MoreQuick Take: U.S.-China System Overload?
The Trump Administration has been rolling out China-targeted actions at a fast and furious pace over the past few weeks. From revoking Hong Kong’s special status with the U.S. to talk of banning Chinese apps, visa restrictions and Uyghur-related sanctions, the hits keep coming. Is this pace of action overloading the system? With so much confusion around the details, it seems so. Here’s what you need to know about what has happened lately.
Read MoreQuick Take: COVID-19 fatigue? Here’s what you need to know this week
This week, we have analysis and insight fatigue with all things COVID-19. This fatigue is one of the lesser-known side effects of this pandemic, and apparently even people in Washington, DC do not have the antibodies to be immune. Even so, the pace of important bilateral developments this week was relentless. Here are a few noteworthy developments summarized below … with limited analysis.
Read MoreQuick Take: New Low in China Rhetoric - and What it Could Mean for Businesses
There is so much vitriol directed at China and coming from China over the past couple of weeks. In this Quick Take, we take a look at how wild the rhetoric has become, share some thoughts about what this new low could mean, and about the new risk for businesses to navigate.
Read MoreHenry Paulson: Save globalisation to secure the future
Covid-19 has resulted in more than a deadly pandemic. It has tipped the world economy into its most severe crisis since the Depression. As the virus’s spread slows and governments rebuild, they face another force sweeping in its path: isolationism. The impending battle will pit forces of openness rooted in market principles against those of closure across four dimensions: trade, capital flows, innovation and global institutions.
Read MoreQuick Take: The Backlash against China Begins
As a glimmer of hope has appeared in the fight against COVID-19 in the United States as cases start to stabilize in New York, attention is turning to who should pay for the economic harm and loss of life resulting from the spread of the coronavirus. From Capitol Hill to the churches, there are increasing calls for China to take responsibility for the rapid global spread of the virus. The argument is that the world was not prepared for the severity and rapid spread because China withheld scientific information and downplayed the actual numbers of people infected. Here's our latest observations about the growing backlash against China and future implications.
Read MorePhase One China-U.S. Trade Deal
Summary of the phase one trade deal with China from our partners at Edelman.
Read MoreQuick Take: What Else You Should Know about the Phase One Trade Deal with China
A lot has been written summarizing the phase one deal with China, but there are a few aspects of the agreement that are worth highlighting along with some of the implications now that this agreement has been signed. Here’s our take on what else you should know.
Read MoreU.S.-China Deal Could Upend the Way Nations Settle Disputes
Basilinna CEO Deborah Lehr's views on the enforcement mechanisms of the US China Phase I trade deal.
Read MoreQuick Take: What Should be in a Phase Two China Trade Deal?
The phase one trade deal will be signed on January 15, and consideration is being given to what a phase two negotiation should include. Here's our take on what could and should be in the second round.
Read MoreFortune's Global Tech Forum: Inside the Trade War’s Tech Battle That Neither China Nor the U.S. Can Afford to Lose
At a Thursday panel at Fortune's Global Tech Forum in Guangzhou, China, policy and industry experts discussed the potential of a U.S.-China decoupling and where technology companies fall in the two superpowers' trade and tech wars. Deborah Lehr, CEO of Basilinna and vice chairman and executive director of the Paulson Institute, offers a pragmatic view of the situation.
Read MoreBloomberg: Biggest Issue of Trade Talks Is Enforcement of Commitments
On August 1, 2019, Basilinna CEO Deborah Lehr was featured on "Bloomberg Markets: Asia" discussing the U.S.-China trade negotiations, including the biggest sticking point of the talks, the implications of the coming 2020 election, the Chinese negotiators and agricultural purchases by China.
Read MoreQuick Take: Treasury Declares China a Currency Manipulator as the Trade Tensions Escalate
Late Monday, August 5 2019, Treasury took the significant step of declaring China a currency manipulator in response to China’s retaliation of the threatened tariff increases. This is our take on the latest move in the escalating bilateral tensions.
Read MoreBloomberg Daybreak: Extent of China Text Changes a Reason for Concern on Trade Deal
Deborah Lehr, CEO of Basilinna and Vice Chairman and Executive Director at the Paulson Institute, discusses the state of U.S.-China trade talks with Bloomberg's David Westin.
Read MoreThe Diplomat: How Latin America Factors Into the US-China Rivalry
The U.S.-China relationship is on a new trajectory that has profound implications for other regions. Even with a resolution to the trade war possibly on the horizon, this bilateral relationship is now confronting a systemic clash that – at its heart – centers around the race to commercialize transformative technologies like artificial intelligence, the Internet of Things, and self-driving vehicles. This clash will play out not just between the United States and China, but around the world, pressuring countries and leading tech companies to choose a side.
Read MoreThe Diplomat: How the US-China Tech Wars Will Impact the Developing World
If an “economic iron curtain” falls, it will be in areas like the Middle East and Africa.
Read MoreQuick Take: U.S.-China Trade Moves Forward: Market Opening, Liu He to DC, and Another Big Xi Speech
China’s Ministry of Commerce (MOFCOM) on Friday quietly announced concrete steps to revise and eliminate restrictions set forth in their centrally administered Negative List on inbound foreign investment. In addition, the Vice President Liu He's upcoming visit to Washington and President Xi's speech in December celebrating the 40th anniversary of opening up and reform both show the intention to bring further market openings.
Read MoreUS-China Trade Talks - Q&A With Deborah Lehr On What America's CEOs Can Expect Going Forward
Following threats of a trade war and new tariffs, the United States and China appear to have agreed on a framework for a trade agreement. Earlier this week I spoke with Deborah Lehr, the CEO of Basilinna, a close colleague of mine with deep expertise in China. Lehr is one of the world’s leading voices on US-China relations, having led US negotiations with China across all major sectors as a Deputy Assistant US Trade Representative during the Clinton Administration. Today she helps business executives solve problems and build successful partnerships in Chinese and Middle Eastern markets.
Read MoreChina's Vice Premier heads to U.S. for trade talks
Deborah Lehr, CEO of Basilinna, discusses trade relations between the United States and China as the nations prepare to resume trade talks. She speaks with Bloomberg's David Westin on "Bloomberg Daybreak: Americas."
Read MoreNPC Update: Slow Start
The 13th session of the National People’s Congress (NPC)—China’s nearly 3,000-delegate parliament—began on Monday, March 5th with an address from Premier Li Keqiang about the state of the economy. In it, he cited a GDP growth target of “about 6.5 percent,” and a commitment to managing macro-level financial risks.
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