Tech and Trade Strategic Insights: Beyond the Headlines
The following are strategic takeaways for business and what we’re watching, a sample of our full bi-weekly insights covering the intersection of technology, trade, and global business.
For the full insight beyond the headlines, contact Jake E. Jennings.
October 15, 2025
Strategic Takeaways for Business
U.S. Government Shutdown Complicates Planning
The shutdown halts rulemaking and interagency coordination while essential trade enforcement proceeds, enabling the Administration to advance policy priorities through executive actions with limited career staff input and no Congressional oversight risking unintended consequences and exposure to successful Court stays.
U.S. - China Trade Volatility
Escalating tariffs, rare earth export controls and expansion of Entity List restrictions cause market volatility in the run up to the planned Trump – Xi meeting at the APEC meeting in Korea later this month. Absent a return to the June London Framework, companies should lan for increased tariffs and national security controls such as antitrust reviews, export licensing restrictions, Section 232 investigations and prohibited technology transactions under ICTS rules.
U.S. Expands Compliance Scope for Export Controls
BIS’s 50% affiliate rule and FCC component restrictions extend scrutiny from entities to ownership and parts, pushing continuous supplier mapping, multi-regulator reporting, and proof of traceability.
China Expands Export Controls to Third-Country Products
China’s November 8th decision significantly expands its export control scope, applying new rare earth and battery material licensing requirements extraterritorially. Products manufactured abroad containing .1% Chinese materials now fall under Beijing’s export licensing regime – effectively mirroring the U.S. Foreign Direct Product Rule. Companies face additional administrative delays and compliance along with potential pricing volatility.
AI Growth Hits Physical and Permitting Limits
Trillion-dollar commitments now depend on securing power, cooling, and transmission infrastructure rather than capital availability. Competitive advantage shifts to companies that can lock in baseload energy partnerships, accelerate permitting timelines and manage grid constraints, with energy access becoming the primary determinant of AI expansion capacity and deployment speed.
Transatlantic Standards Clash Raises Costs
U.S.–EU friction over climate and due diligence rules ties tariff relief to ESG concessions, forcing companies to budget for parallel compliance systems and potential retaliation as talks toggle between alignment and dispute.
U.S. - Canada Energy Diplomacy
Prospective U.S.–Canada arrangements couple tariff relief with cross-border energy cooperation. For Canada, this engagement bolsters its negotiating position ahead of the USMCA review by increasing energy interdependence with the U.S.
U.S. Tariff Leverage Recasts Drug Pricing
Deal-based exemptions for major pharma firms make pricing and localization outcomes contingent on political negotiation, advantaging scale players and pressuring suppliers to localize or face uncertain tariff headwinds.
Europe AI Digital Sovereignty
New EU initiatives pair public investment with interoperability and data-access mandates, creating opportunities in government deployments while narrowing pricing freedom and data control for U.S. platforms.
What We’re Watching
White House Weighs Executive Order on Generic Drug Production
The Trump administration is preparing options to reshore generic drug manufacturing through federal grants or loans after excluding generics from the Section 232 pharmaceutical tariff plan, with a decision whether to launch an executive order to support domestic producers.
Supreme Court to Rule on Presidential Powers
The Supreme Court is set to hear cases that will determine President Trump’s authority to impose global tariffs, dismiss independent agency heads, and limit birthright citizenship. Decision expected early 2026 (possibly sooner for IEEPA tariff case) and could reshape executive trade and regulatory powers ahead of the election year.
U.S.– EU Trade Tensions
The Trump administration’s latest demands on digital and climate rules are testing the durability of this summer’s tariff truce. EU leaders meet this week to decide whether to reopen negotiations or prepare countermeasures before the next U.S.–EU round in November.
U.S.–South Korea Security Pact Nears Announcement
Washington and Seoul are finalizing a defense framework expected before the APEC summit, combining higher military spending, expanded arms purchases, and revised nuclear cooperation. The pact is designed to anchor regional security alignment before new trade talks begin.
U.S. to Announce New Southeast Asia Trade Deals
The administration plans to unveil multiple trade agreements with ASEAN partners during President Trump’s late-October trip, linking tariff relief to investment pledges and market-access reforms. The rollout aims to consolidate Southeast Asia within the U.S. reciprocal trade framework.
U.S.– India Trade Talks Enter Critical Phase
Ongoing negotiations are moving toward a fall decision on tariffs, digital taxes, and visa restrictions. Both governments are signaling intent to reach a limited agreement ahead of year-end summits, balancing commercial concessions against geopolitical alignment.
Published by Basilinna Institute.
