Tech and Trade Strategic Insights: Beyond the Headlines
The following are strategic takeaways for business and what we’re watching, a sample of our full bi-weekly insights covering the intersection of technology, trade, and global business.
For the full insight beyond the headlines, contact Jake E. Jennings.
November 18, 2025
Strategic Takeaways for Business
Executive Trade Authority Takes Center Stage
The Supreme Court’s review of IEEPA tariffs creates a planning gap where duties could be unwound even as Section 232 and 301 actions expand, requiring firms to model divergent statutory outcomes and prepare for faster or broader tariff escalation.
Deal-Based Tariff Relief Raises Alignment Risk
Reciprocal tariff frameworks now tie market access to investment delivery, digital-policy compliance, and limits on Chinese technology, making partner-country foreign policy decisions a direct commercial opportunity for multinationals.
Power Constraints Become a Core Cost Driver
AI data-center expansion is running into permitting backlogs, local resistance, and rising capacity-market charges, pushing companies to secure firm power early and account for tougher state-level scrutiny of project viability.
AI Controls Reshape Market Boundaries
Tightened U.S. export rules and China’s shift to domestic accelerators are deepening ecosystem bifurcation, shrinking Chinese addressable markets for U.S. suppliers and increasing diversion-control risks across third countries.
Minerals Policy Becomes Strategic Leverage
New U.S. critical-minerals designations and conditional regional deals introduce shifting tariff exposure and licensing demands, requiring firms to track rapid policy moves that link minerals directly to trade and security strategy.
U.S.–China Truce Remains Tactical
The FCC’s expanded equipment authorization rules institutionalize component-level oversight, requiring continuous certification and upstream transparency—making compliance an ongoing operational discipline.
China’s Data Controls Blur Trade and Tech Boundaries
Incremental steps on export controls and licensing provide only temporary relief, leaving firms exposed to renewed tariff and technology swings as both governments continue to use trade actions for broader strategic aims.
AI Export Strategy Demands Early Engagement
Commerce’s extended RFI window gives firms a chance to shape full-stack AI export packages, but participation will require alignment with security-focused evaluation criteria and tighter integration of export promotion with export controls.
What We’re Watching
EU Signals AI Act Enforcement Delays
Brussels is expected to unveil a November 19 proposal that would postpone key AI Act obligations into 2027, a shift that could ease near-term compliance pressure on U.S. providers while signaling continued regulatory divergence that may shape market access, product rollout sequencing, and negotiations with the Trump administration over digital rules.
Taiwan Weighs Future Chip Export Controls
Taipei is expected to decide whether to retain semiconductor export curbs as a diplomatic tool, a move that could broaden to other countries and may shape supply risks for firms if new restrictions are activated around upcoming G20-related tensions.
U.S.–India Trade Deal Signals Tariff Shift
President Trump is expected to decide in the coming weeks whether to lower the 50% tariff rate on Indian goods as negotiators move toward a limited agreement, with any deal likely to hinge on India’s reduced Russian oil purchases and could reset market access terms for U.S. firms.
U.S.–Brazil Tariff Talks Enter Decision Window
Brazil is expecting a U.S. response to its trade proposal as soon as this week, with a provisional deal eyed by early next month and a final agreement two to three months later, while the Trump administration may further cut coffee and food tariffs as price pressures persist.
China Tech Security Pressures Mount
A Senate Democratic push to restore suspended BIS restrictions and a leaked White House memo alleging Alibaba provided data and AI support to China’s military are adding pressure on the administration to tighten China-focused tech controls, with potential actions expected as export-control and trade reviews continue into early 2026.
Memory Shortage Set to Pressure 2026 Production
SMIC expects rising memory prices and tight supply to constrain car and electronics output next year, signaling that Chinese chipmakers may accelerate capacity plans while buyers delay early-2026 orders until they gauge how shortages tied to AI demand will unfold.
EU Review of Google’s Ad Tech Fixes Could Shape Digital Trade Rules
Brussels is set to test whether Google’s proposed changes meet its order, a decision that could guide future EU–U.S. digital market standards and influence how the Trump administration approaches cross-border data and competition issues in upcoming trade talks.
Published by Basilinna Institute.
