Tech and Trade Strategic Insights: Beyond the Headlines
The following are strategic takeaways for business and what we’re watching, a sample of our full bi-weekly insights covering the intersection of technology, trade, and global business.
For the full insight beyond the headlines, contact Jake E. Jennings.
December 16, 2025
Strategic Takeaways for Business
Federal AI Preemption Raises Litigation as a Compliance Risk
The administration’s turn to DOJ-led challenges and funding leverage signals that court outcomes, not just statutes, will increasingly determine AI compliance obligations for firms operating across multiple states.
State-Level AI Rules Enter a Screening Phase
Commerce’s 90-day review window creates a near-term opportunity for companies to influence which state AI provisions are flagged as onerous, making early engagement a strategic hedge against uneven enforcement.
Tariffs Become a Permanent Feature of China Trade Planning
U.S. policy is settling into a managed, smaller bilateral trade relationship where tariffs are a standing tool, requiring companies to assume sustained rate exposure rather than cyclical relief.
Chip Export Policy Shifts Toward Transactional Access
The authorization of H200 exports to China introduces a precedent where advanced technology access is tied to licensing discretion and revenue capture, increasing volatility for semiconductor planning and investment.
North American Origin Scrutiny Intensifies Ahead of USMCA Review
Mexico’s Asia-wide tariffs and the U.S. shift to bilateral tracks signal that origin verification and transshipment risk will become central compliance issues across North American supply chains starting in 2026.
Bilateral Trade Deals Replace Uniform Regional Frameworks
The move away from trilateral USMCA engagement means firms should plan for differentiated rules and enforcement expectations across Mexico and Canada rather than a single regional baseline agreement.
Security Reviews Now Function as Market-Access Gates
The security review of DJI reinforces that national-security determinations by agencies such as the FCC can rapidly freeze product pipelines, requiring contingency planning beyond traditional trade and regulatory compliance.
Global Standards Bodies Shape Long-Term Market Conditions
Outcomes from the ITU development agenda will influence procurement norms and regulatory expectations in emerging markets, making early participation a strategic lever for firms seeking durable access through 2029.
What We’re Watching
China Challenges Global Minimum Tax Carve-Out
Beijing is expected to press OECD partners to block or dilute the Trump administration’s proposed exemption for U.S. multinationals, raising the likelihood of stalled negotiations and potential countermeasures as countries prepare to decide whether to implement the minimum tax framework in 2026.
U.S.–EU Digital Trade Frictions Near Test Point
The Trump administration is expected to press Brussels in upcoming talks to demonstrate non-discriminatory enforcement of the DSA and DMA, with Washington weighing whether EU implementation triggers formal consultations or follow-on trade actions tied to the July agreement.
Indonesia Trade Talks Test U.S. Leverage
USTR is weighing whether to harden demands on critical minerals access, digital trade, and limits on China alignment after Jakarta backtracked on July commitments, with talks at risk of collapse and Indonesian exports facing a return to tariffs as high as 32% if no revised framework is reached.
SAFE Chips Act Nears Decision Point
Congress is expected to take up the bipartisan SAFE Chips Act in 2026 as part of broader export-control and competitiveness legislation. If enacted, the bill would lock in statutory limits on advanced AI and high-performance chip exports to China, replacing discretionary licensing with fixed ceilings that would shape market access and compliance planning for years.
Commerce Signals New AI Compute Controls
Commerce is expected to move toward updated export-control guidance on advanced AI compute following the Nvidia decision. Firms should watch for changes to licensing thresholds and scope that could narrow eligibility and reset compliance assumptions.
NDAA AI and Export Control Provisions Resurface in 2026
With AI preemption and chip-control language dropped from the NDAA, lawmakers are expected to revive these provisions in early-2026 legislation. The outcome will shape whether limits on state AI rules and statutory chip export caps move from discretionary policy to binding law.
Published by Basilinna Institute.
