Your talking points

Saudi Arabia employs a strategy of strategic hedging, maintaining ties with rival powers to enhance its autonomy in a multipolar world.
Riyadh is leveraging its position as a mediator in major regional conflicts, a host of summit diplomacy, and a broker of transversal deals to assert itself as a regional and global powerhouse.
These diplomatic maneuvers are closely tied to the implementation of Vision 2030 and the leadership of Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, which requires regional stability and diversified partnerships to successfully achieve the Kingdom’s socioeconomic transformation.

Beyond the Points

Strategic Posturing

U.S. President Donald Trump with Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed Bin Salman Saudi-U.S. Investment Forum (2025), Wikimedia Commons

Over the past decade, Saudi Arabia has transitioned from an overzealous regional actor, engaging in armed conflicts and backing belligerent factions, toward a more measured and mature foreign policy posture. It now leverages its vast resources and the momentum of Vision 2030 to position itself as a key player on both the regional and global stage. Its leadership role in OPEC and OPEC+ has reinforced this emerging identity.

In 2022, Riyadh played a central role in a prisoner exchange between Russia and Ukraine, which included American citizens. While the event received limited media attention, it marked a strategic inflection point: Saudi Arabia had moved beyond a purely regional focus and was actively inserting itself into diplomatic processes often paralyzed by great-power rivalries. This evolution reflects the Kingdom’s growing conviction that, while it must continue to lead regionally, despite competition from a few other actors, it recognizes it must also assert itself globally.

Riyadh is deliberately positioning itself as a bridge-builder among rival blocs. Its strategy of strategic hedging involves deepening ties with China and Russia while preserving long-standing partnerships with the United States. The Kingdom is simultaneously conducting oil transactions in yuan and signing defense contracts in dollars, coordinating with OPEC+, and receiving U.S. military support. This support includes arms sales, joint military exercises, and the continued presence of American troops on Saudi soil, all of which collectively anchor its security doctrine, even as it expands ties with Beijing and Moscow. This approach mirrors broader trends among GCC states such as the UAE and Qatar, which are also navigating multipolar dynamics through similar strategies.

The United States remains Saudi Arabia’s primary security guarantor. The Saudi military continues to depend on American systems, training, and intelligence. Most of its oil transactions remain denominated in U.S. dollars. Moreover, Vision 2030’s ambitions in the technology and business sectors rely heavily on American companies and institutions.

This dual anchorage underpins the Kingdom’s strategy: to engage broadly without becoming ensnared in bloc-based alignments. This posture does not signify neutrality, but rather a calculated and agile diplomacy.

Mediation Diplomacy

This geopolitical repositioning is embedded in the broader national blueprint of Vision 2030, which seeks to transform the Saudi economy by reducing dependence on oil, developing high-tech industries, and attracting foreign direct investment (FDI). For this transformation to succeed, Saudi Arabia must ensure a stable, multipolar, and predictable international environment.

This is where Saudi diplomacy becomes most strategic. By cultivating a behind-the-scenes role as a mediator and influencer, the Kingdom is fostering a favorable climate for its own business—whether in manufacturing, exports, or tourism. This emerging form of quiet power has become a strategic asset, complementing traditional tools like oil by enhancing the Kingdom’s diplomatic value.

Saudi Arabia’s role in the Sudanese conflict is emblematic of this behind-the-scenes approach. Behind closed doors, Riyadh hosted negotiations between rival factions, while coordinating efforts with both the United States and the United Nations. It also continued its mediation efforts in the Russia–Ukraine conflict with U.S. support. Meanwhile, the Kingdom maintained a firm stance on the Israel-Palestine conflict, convening both Arab and Islamic summits to advocate an end to the war in Gaza. Former President Trump’s acknowledgment of Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman’s role in persuading the U.S. to lift sanctions on Syria following the collapse of the Assad regime underscores Saudi Arabia’s growing influence in both regional and international arenas.

By positioning itself as a geopolitical protagonist, Vision 2030 evolves from a domestic development strategy into a platform for global influence, enabling the Kingdom to shape the contours of the emerging world order. Recent FDI pledges from both U.S. and Chinese firms highlight this dual-track diplomacy.

A New Regional Center

This mediation strategy has also contributed to a recalibration of regional leadership. Egypt, historically a central diplomatic actor in Arab and North African affairs, is now mired in economic crisis, burdened by rising debt, inflation, and increasing dependency on Gulf financial support. Its diminishing ability to lead on regional issues has left a vacuum that Riyadh is now filling, positioning itself as a regional diplomatic anchor.

The Kingdom has convened bilateral summits with rival emerging powers such as Türkiye and Iran. Some of these meetings led to historic outcomes, including the Saudi–Turkish drone agreement. In 2025, Saudi Arabia expressed interest in Ankara’s fifth-generation KAAN fighter jets—further evidence of its gradual diversification of security partnerships, while still maintaining strategic ties with the United States.

This diplomatic pivot reflects a broader institutional realignment in Saudi foreign policy. Rather than relying on the Arab League, often perceived as ineffective, Riyadh increasingly conducts its regional diplomacy through the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC), where it enjoys greater influence and strategic alignment. However, it has not entirely disengaged from pan-Arab institutions. Reports suggest that former Foreign Minister Adel Al-Jubeir may be nominated as Secretary General of the Arab League, a move that would allow Saudi Arabia to revitalize and reassert its influence within a historically stagnant body.

Risks and Constraints

This strategy is not without its risks. American expectations of exclusivity, or heightened concerns about Saudi ties with Beijing, could destabilize the diplomatic equilibrium Riyadh is striving to maintain. A deeper Saudi–China partnership, especially in defense or technology, could provoke diplomatic or economic pushback from Washington.

Domestic challenges may also limit the Kingdom’s external ambitions. Persistent youth unemployment in a country where 60 percent of the population is under 30, mounting public debt, and the enormous scale of Vision 2030’s Giga-Projects raise questions about the initiative’s long-term fiscal sustainability. Unmet expectations among Saudi youth, already a source of social tension, could weaken internal consensus and erode the legitimacy needed to sustain its foreign policy trajectory.

At the same time, intensified internal repression could diminish the Kingdom’s soft power appeal. A growing perception of authoritarianism at home, paired with assertiveness abroad, risks alienating regional partners and foreign investors alike.

As Riyadh seeks to carve out a new role on the global stage, defined not by rigid alignments but by strategic agility, it faces a delicate balancing act. The success of this strategy will depend not only on diplomatic finesse but also on the Kingdom’s ability to deliver on the socioeconomic promises that underpin its global ambitions.

Saudi Arabia’s Strategic Hedging: Navigating Multipolarity through Quiet Power