Tech and Trade Strategic Insights: Beyond the Headlines
The following are strategic takeaways for business and what we’re watching, a sample of our full bi-weekly insights covering the intersection of technology, trade, and global business.
For the full insight beyond the headlines, contact Jake E. Jennings.
January 23, 2026
Strategic Takeaways for Business
Tariff Relief is Increasingly Exchanged for Onshoring Commitments
The U.S.–Taiwan chip deal underscores a template where reduced duties come with large, targeted investment obligations, tightening the link between market access and domestic buildout decisions.
Semiconductor Market Access is Being Traded for U.S. Buildout
Section 232 is evolving into an investment-for-access mechanism, conditioning tariff relief on domestic manufacturing commitments rather than simple country-of-origin rules. Firms should plan for tariff exposure to be negotiated alongside capital investment, executive engagement, and long-term U.S. footprint decisions, not treated as a temporary trade risk.
AI Policy and Power Costs Are Becoming Political
With President Trump’s recent statement on AI Power (covering their cost), expect data center growth to hinge on firms’ willingness to finance generation and grid upgrades directly. Federal efforts to shield households from rising power prices signal tighter scrutiny of how AI infrastructure costs are allocated, increasing regulatory exposure alongside buildout incentives.
Export Controls Are Turning Transactional
Tariffs layered onto AI chip export approvals show that market access to China is increasingly tied to payments, conditions, and negotiated concessions rather than blanket bans.
Critical Minerals Markets Are Moving Toward State Management
Stockpiles, price floors, and allied coordination point to heavier government involvement in supply and pricing, reducing volatility but constraining commercial flexibility.
Federal Preemption of AI Rules Is Accelerating
DOJ challenges to state AI laws suggest a push toward centralized governance, easing fragmentation for national firms while increasing stakes in federal policy outcomes and litigation.
Secondary Sanctions via Tariffs Are Expanding
Broad penalties on countries trading with Iran signal wider use of extraterritorial trade tools, complicating compliance for firms embedded in global energy and industrial supply chains.
FCC Drone Exemptions Signal Backdoor China Targeting
Exempting Taiwan and Korean drones while maintaining Chinese restrictions suggests regulators are using security frameworks to enforce industrial policy without formally breaking the U.S.-China truce.
China’s Trade Surplus Undercuts Tariff-Only Strategies
Rising exports despite U.S. tariffs reinforce that diversion, not decoupling, is shaping trade flows, leaving companies exposed to policy risk without guaranteed rebalancing.
What We’re Watching
Congress Weighs Locking in USMCA Digital Trade Rules
Lawmakers are expected to use the momentum from the January hearing to push for binding cross-border data flow and anti-localization provisions in upcoming trade legislation and oversight of the 2026 USMCA review, testing whether digital trade commitments become a baseline for future U.S. agreements.
EU ‘Made in Europe’ Law Nears Proposal
The European Commission is set to unveil the Industrial Accelerator Act later this month, potentially imposing local-content procurement rules and conditions on large foreign investments, with negotiations and pushback from member states likely to shape scope, exemptions, and enforcement timelines.
AI Action Plan Implementation Deadlines Near
Federal agencies are expected to issue procurement guidance and compliance standards tied to the AI Action Plan in the coming weeks, with early requirements likely to shape eligibility for federal contracts and export support programs before full implementation capacity is in place.
Section 232 Decisions Approach
Commerce is expected to advance Section 232 determinations on a number of products, narrowing the window for firms to negotiate exemptions or investment commitments as the administration moves closer to activating tariffs tied to domestic manufacturing outcomes.
Published by Basilinna Institute.
