Tech and Trade Strategic Insights: Beyond the Headlines
The following are strategic takeaways for business and what we’re watching, a sample of our full bi-weekly insights covering the intersection of technology, trade, and global business.
For the full insight beyond the headlines, contact Jake E. Jennings.
January 6, 2026
Strategic Takeaways for Business
FCC Bars New Chinese Drones from U.S. Markets
Firms should expect national security reviews to be embedded earlier in authorization and certification processes, raising barriers for foreign-origin hardware including routers and IoT devices well before sanctions or enforcement actions occur.
U.S. Tariff Postponement Is a Temporary Cushion
Existing approvals and tariff delays offer short-term continuity, but companies should treat them as planning windows rather than stable policy baselines.
Subsea Cable Infrastructure Is Now a Law Enforcement Priority
Governments are signaling a willingness to pursue criminal and operational responses to disruptions of cables, energy assets, and networks, increasing compliance and monitoring expectations for operators.
China Competition Is Shifting to Third Markets
Tariffs have redirected, not reduced, Chinese exports, intensifying price and capacity pressure in Europe, ASEAN, and emerging markets
EU AI Regulatory Timelines Slip, Obligations Will Not
Temporary EU delays buy time to build durable compliance systems, but core digital and AI requirements remain firmly in place.
Quantum-Safe Security – Table Stakes for Federal Contracts
Federal procurement is pulling post-quantum cryptography into near-term requirements, accelerating expectations across regulated sectors.
NDAA – Capital Controls Are Hardening Faster Than Export Controls
Outbound investment screening and procurement bans are becoming the more durable constraints, while export controls remain flexible and transactional.
Bifurcation Becomes Structural, Not Tactical
China’s pairing of domestic chip substitution with tighter AI governance, alongside the Trump administration’s expanded investment blocking, signals that U.S.–China technology ties will continue to narrow through regulation as much as through trade controls, requiring firms to plan for durable market separation rather than episodic restrictions.
What We’re Watching
USMCA Review Report Due January 2
USTR’s first formal assessment will show where the administration intends to press hardest—Chinese transshipment via Mexico, auto rules of origin, and Canadian metals are leading candidates—with Greer’s late-December Hill briefings signaling a willingness to pair structural demands with explicit withdrawal leverage and separate bilateral tracks for Mexico and Canada.
DOJ Opens Federal Preemption Fight Over State AI Laws
The launch of DOJ’s AI Litigation Task Force in mid-January, paired with the first lawsuits against state AI statutes, will clarify how aggressively Washington plans to use the courts to establish federal primacy—and how far it is willing to go to deter state-by-state compliance fragmentation.
Commerce “Onerous AI Rules” List Due March 10
Commerce’s review will effectively identify which transparency, bias, and governance provisions the administration views as incompatible with its national framework, helping companies anticipate where federal pressure or litigation is most likely to concentrate.
Mexico’s Asia-Wide Tariffs Move From Announcement to Enforcement
January–February enforcement patterns will show whether Mexico is prepared to act as a durable gatekeeper on third-country imports—or whether exemptions, phased audits, and selective implementation blunt the commercial impact across North American supply chains.
U.S.–India Q1 Trade Track Tests the “Narrow Deal” Theory
A limited tariff-for-energy package would reinforce India’s role as a China+1 hub and create clearer planning assumptions for manufacturers and investors; failure to land anything in Q1 would point to renewed drift and higher policy risk for firms counting on near-term access stability.
Hill Movement on AI and Chip Bills in February–March
With chip export riders sidelined in the NDAA, progress on the GAIN AI Act, SAFE Chips Act, and License Monopoly Prevention Act will indicate how much discretion Congress is prepared to leave the White House on advanced exports, licensing standards, and market-access terms.
Indonesia–U.S. Tariff Deal Nears Signing
Presidents Prabowo Subianto and President Trump are expected to sign a reciprocal trade agreement by late January, triggering implementation of tariff exemptions and market-access terms, with follow-on monitoring of purchase commitments and critical minerals access likely to shape enforcement in early 2026.
Published by Basilinna Institute.
