Tech and Trade Strategic Insights: Beyond the Headlines
The following are strategic takeaways for business, a sample of our full bi-weekly insights covering the intersection of technology, trade, and global business.
For the full insight beyond the headlines, contact Jake E. Jennings.
September 16, 2025
Antitrust as trade policy response
China's preliminary finding that NVIDIA violated competition rules by adhering to U.S. export controls highlights how multinationals face conflicting legal demands across jurisdictions. Compliance with one government’s trade restrictions can trigger antitrust penalties elsewhere, creating structural legal and operational risks as rival technology strategies collide.
AI infrastructure concentrates risk
Mega-contracts between OpenAI–Oracle and Microsoft–Nebius consolidate compute capacity, embedding power, permitting, and financing volatility into corporate planning. Executives must prepare for grid stress, debt-financed buildouts, and regulatory scrutiny of concentrated suppliers.
India hedges despite U.S. outreach
Tariffs tied to Russian oil are driving New Delhi toward Beijing and Moscow even as it reopens trade talks with Washington. Market access will remain unstable, requiring firms to plan for prolonged negotiation cycles and shifting alignments.
Tariff carveouts embed volatility
Exemptions linked to new trade deals make supply-chain stability dependent on political alignment. Companies exposed to excluded markets face sudden cost shocks and must design production models that can adapt quickly.
U.S.–EU digital divergence widens
The EU court’s privacy ruling, a record Google fine, and President Trump’s Section 301 threats highlight limits of “tech sovereignty” resulting in higher compliance costs and retaliatory risks.
Industrial policy politicizes capital
Equity stakes in Intel and Secretary Lutnick’s investment accelerator model embed political leverage into boardrooms. Companies should stress-test exposure to forced concessions and reputational risk as government ownership reshapes financing.
Mexico becomes North American gatekeeper
New tariffs on Chinese imports align with U.S. priorities but raise input costs for U.S. manufacturers. Mexico’s stance could strengthen the bloc ahead of the USMCA review, provided Washington avoids overreach.
Tariffs used as leverage for Russia sanctions
Threatened 100% duties on China and India link market access to energy alignment, amplifying retaliation risks. With little chance of policy change in New Delhi, firms must prepare for sustained volatility. U.S.-China trade talks could sidestep additional tariffs for Beijing.
China accelerates semiconductor independence
Alibaba’s AI chip, built entirely in China, weakens U.S. export controls and deepens bifurcation of tech ecosystems. U.S. suppliers face reduced access, while global firms must adapt to dual standards.
Certification shifts away from China
FCC delisting of Chinese electronic certification labs adds cost and delay to product launches. U.S. testing firms gain opportunities, but manufacturers must diversify compliance pathways quickly to avoid disruption.
Published by Basilinna Institute.
