Tech and Trade Strategic Insights: Beyond the Headlines
The following are strategic takeaways for business and what we’re watching, a sample of our full bi-weekly insights covering the intersection of technology, trade, and global business.
For the full insight beyond the headlines, contact Jake E. Jennings.
February 3, 2026
Strategic Takeaways for Business
Economic Security Replaces Free Trade in the Western Hemisphere
U.S. agreements and USMCA talks increasingly condition regional market access on supply chain alignment, critical minerals cooperation, and China-related constraints rather than tariff reciprocity.
Critical Minerals Access Is Becoming Government-Directed
Federal loans, stockpiles, and long-term offtake arrangements will increasingly determine access to rare earths, requiring companies to align sourcing strategies with U.S. policy priorities rather than spot markets.
Tariffs Are Enforcing Geopolitical Behavior
Recent India and South Korea actions underscore that tariff exposure now reflects foreign policy alignment as much as trade terms, increasing volatility for firms operating across politically sensitive markets.
U.S.–China Tech Access Will Remain Transactional
Nvidia’s H200 approvals point to managed engagement rather than normalization, with market access likely to remain episodic and contingent on evolving security and diplomatic considerations.
AI Infrastructure Is Constrained by Energy and Permitting
As Commerce embeds itself closer to industry, power availability and self-financed generation are emerging as decisive factors in where AI capacity can scale inside the United States.
Defense and Trade Policy Are Converging
The Pentagon’s recalibrated posture reinforces a model where procurement, industrial capacity, and technology controls are tightly linked, favoring firms positioned to support U.S.-based resilience.
Compliance Burdens Are Expanding Beyond Borders
Certification of supply sufficiency, cloud access controls, and third-party testing extend U.S. trade obligations into services and infrastructure, raising operational risk for globally integrated firms.
What We’re Watching
Supreme Court Tariff Authority Decision Pending
The Supreme Court is expected to rule as early as late February on the limits of presidential tariff powers, a decision that could force the Trump administration to shift future trade actions toward Section 232 or other statutory tools if emergency authority is curtailed.
De Minimis Postal Rules Fully Phase In
On February 28, simplified flat-rate duties for postal shipments expire, triggering full customs processing and ad valorem duties for all inbound packages and increasing costs and clearance times for cross-border e-commerce models.
Federal Review of State AI Laws Nears
By March 11, the Justice Department is set to identify state AI laws deemed burdensome, a step that could affect broadband funding eligibility and prompt legal challenges, shaping near-term uncertainty for AI deployment and infrastructure planning.
EU AI Act Compliance Window Tightens
With guidance expected this month, companies face a shrinking runway to secure conformity assessments for high-risk AI systems ahead of the August 2026 deadline, as notified bodies fill capacity and enforcement expectations begin to crystallize.
Cloud Export Controls Head to the Senate
The Senate is set to consider legislation authorizing export controls on foreign remote access to advanced computing via the cloud, a move that could require licenses for certain AI and GPU services and reshape compliance obligations for global cloud providers.
U.S.–Denmark Greenland Framework Talks Advance
The Trump administration is expected to pursue a revised defense and economic framework with Denmark and Greenland that could expand U.S. military access, mining rights, and Arctic security cooperation, with negotiations set to continue as Washington weighs tariff restraint against progress on a deal.
Treasury Implementation of the COIN Act
Treasury is expected to issue initial guidance on implementing the COIN Act, including definitions, reporting requirements, and potential restrictions on stablecoins and digital asset transactions. Early signals on scope and enforcement could shape compliance obligations for financial institutions, fintech firms, and companies using tokenized payment rails.
Published by Basilinna Institute.
