What to Watch at the Trump-Xi Summit
China often develops catchy names and numbers for its major policy initiatives—wrapping up complex agendas and outcomes in short, repeatable constructs that shape how they are understood. What’s your "formula" for the Trump-Xi summit—what matters most, what each side wants, where a deal is possible, and where the real risks lie?
By Deborah Lehr
September 21, 2026
The Three Nos: No Rupture, No Escalation, and No Illusions
I predict that the way to sum up the results of the summit, in language that the Chinese government would use with their fondness for ‘numbered’ policy, is the “The Three Nos”: No Rupture, No Escalation, and No Illusions.
No rupture means recognizing that neither country can realistically sever itself from the other. Their economies, technologies, financial markets and global responsibilities remain too intertwined.
No escalation means putting guardrails around competition. Washington and Beijing will continue to disagree profoundly over trade, technology, Taiwan, security and the international order. The immediate objective is not to eliminate those differences, but to keep them from becoming a crisis to maintain, in other words, construct strategic stability through mutually assured disruption.
And no illusions — One summit will not produce a grand bargain or restore the relationship of decades past. Strategic competition is here to stay. And both sides don’t have any illusions about “getting back together.”
Deborah Lehr
Basilinna Chair and CEO
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