What to Watch at the Trump-Xi Summit

China often develops catchy names and numbers for its major policy initiatives—wrapping up complex agendas and outcomes in short, repeatable constructs that shape how they are understood. What’s your "formula" for the Trump-Xi summit—what matters most, what each side wants, where a deal is possible, and where the real risks lie?

By Ruihan Huang

September 21, 2026

The Three Ds: Deals, Deterrence, and Dependency

My formula is “The Three Ds”: Deals, Deterrence, and Dependency. Both leaders may find room for deals where interests can be priced—agriculture, investment, market access or specific trade barriers—but the harder reality is that both sides are simultaneously trying to deter the other while discovering how much they still depend on one another. The summit will matter if it begins to turn that mutual dependency from a vulnerability each side seeks to weaponize into a constraint that both recognize they need to manage.

Ruihan Huang

Basilinna Director

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