The U.S.-China Relationship in the Months Ahead
In the wake of the Trump-Xi Summit in Beijing, Basilinna's leading China experts respond to the question: which new stabilizing forces—or points of friction—are most likely to shape the U.S.-China relationship in the months ahead?
June 17, 2026
The most underappreciated stabilizer in the near term is mutual gridlock. The sharpest emerging friction over the next six months is Beijing's increasingly robust lawfare toolkit, and their increasing willingness to use it.
The most underappreciated stabilizer in the near term is mutual gridlock. After two years of tit-for-tat escalation focused on tariffs, chip controls, and rare earths, both sides have a clearer read on each other's pain tolerance, and both are moving to shore up their flanks and gain more leverage before adjudicating those issues.
The sharpest emerging friction over the next six months is Beijing's increasingly robust lawfare toolkit, and their increasing willingness to use it. While U.S. firms and policymakers are still wired for tariff-and-sanctions logic, but the next inflection point could come from a Chinese regulatory action that the U.S. is unprepared to contend with smoothly
Kendra Schaefer
Senior Fellow
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