The U.S.-China Relationship in the Months Ahead

In the wake of the Trump-Xi Summit in Beijing, Basilinna's leading China experts respond to the question: which new stabilizing forces—or points of friction—are most likely to shape the U.S.-China relationship in the months ahead? 

By Deborah Lehr

June 17, 2026

The [U.S.-China] relationship is likely to be shaped less by a grand reset than by managed instability.  

The relationship is likely to be shaped less by a grand reset than by managed instability. 

Both sides need economic predictability, markets do not want another tariff spiral, and the new U.S.-China trade and investment Boards may give both governments a place to manage disputes before they escalate.  

But the points of friction are more structural. Technology controls—especially around advanced AI chips—will remain central. Taiwan remains a dangerous flashpoint. Critical minerals and rare earths are another pressure point, because both sides now see supply chains as national security assets. 

What we are likely to see is more predictability, and enough communication to allow for managed competition.

Deborah Lehr

Basilinna Chair and CEO

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